Pronóstico: What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

Market context

Worst Neighbor Ever currently holds the #1 spot on Netflix’s US Top 10 list for the week of 6–12 July 2026, setting the baseline for the contract that resolves on Tuesday, 21 July 2026 [1]. On Polymarket, this YES share trades at 3% implied probability, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens that settle only if the official top10.netflix.com update confirms the show as the week’s leader. The low price reflects the market’s view that a new title will likely displace the current leader by the settlement date, as Netflix’s weekly rankings often shift mid-cycle due to fresh releases or promotional spikes.

Historically, shows holding the #1 position in early July rarely retain it through the following week unless backed by a major marketing push or a season finale; comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show displacement rates exceeding 70% within seven days. This pattern suggests the 3% probability is not an outlier but a rational reflection of typical volatility in Netflix’s US viewership data, where even top-tier shows lose ground quickly without sustained engagement.

Traders should monitor Netflix’s official Top 10 update at 3:00 PM ET on 21 July, which will confirm the final ranking, and watch for any surprise announcements of new premieres scheduled for 13–19 July that could alter viewership. A delay in the update beyond 24 July 11:59 PM ET triggers an “Other” resolution, adding a mechanical risk layer to the on-chain position. No recent news source has confirmed a competing show’s launch, but the absence of such signals reinforces the current pricing.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.