Pronóstico: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving in and out of the Persian Gulf again, easing oil prices after weekend attacks temporarily disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. On the weekend of 6 July 2026, 29 vessels passed on Saturday and only 12 on Sunday, a sharp drop from the 74 ships recorded the previous Wednesday [4]. By 6 July, traffic had begun recovering over the weekend, though passages remained below normal levels [3]. This volatility frames the current 82% YES probability: while the choke point is open, the settlement window captures a week where disruptions recently slashed daily counts by more than half.

Historically, Hormuz transits average 40–50 ships per day under stable conditions, but geopolitical shocks can halve that volume within hours. The June 2026 bottleneck saw zero outbound commercial vessels for 72 hours, underscoring how quickly traffic can collapse [2]. Conversely, the US-Iran deal signed in mid-June resumed tanker flows, with 40 ships passing on a single Monday shortly after [5][6]. The 82% market price likely assumes the recovery trend continues, but the recent weekend dip suggests the total for 6–12 July could fall short of typical weekly averages if further attacks occur.

Traders must watch for announcements from Iran, US-Iran ceasefire updates, and real-time data from Kpler or MarineTraffic, which track daily transits [4][9]. The market resolves on IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls, which only count once the next day’s data point arrives [1]. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where the 82% price reflects crowd confidence in uninterrupted flows despite the recent volatility. Any new weekend attacks or diplomatic setbacks could rapidly shift the probability as the settlement window closes on 12 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.