Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to single-digit daily averages, representing a greater than 95% drop from pre-war norms, making a return to 60 ships per day by August 31 mechanically improbable. Recent IMF PortWatch data shows the 7-day moving average was merely 32.57 as of late June, with experts projecting traffic will only reach 40–50 ships daily within 30 days due to severe logistical and security constraints [1][3]. Clearing the estimated 500-ship backlog alone is expected to take a month, while a full return to pre-war levels would require roughly eight weeks, suggesting the current 20% crowd-implied probability is overly optimistic given the sheer lag in recovery [1].

On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens allow traders to speculate on the specific resolution criteria without exposing capital to the underlying asset. To read the probability correctly, a trader must monitor announcements regarding the normalization of AIS broadcasting, as a rapid restoration of data reporting could artificially inflate the moving average, though such anomalies remain unlikely [1]. Key catalysts include scheduled diplomatic de-escalations and the clearance rate of the tanker backlog, with recent reports from CNBC confirming that recovery remains heavily rate-limited rather than immediate [1]. Traders should also watch for any sudden shifts in the 7-day average data published by PortWatch, as the lagging nature of the metric means daily surges to 70–100 ships would need to be sustained almost immediately to breach the threshold [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.