Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Over 30,000 vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually, carrying more than 20 million barrels of oil each day, yet daily crossings have collapsed by over 95% since the Iran war began[5][7]. Recent IMF PortWatch data shows 41 transit calls in a single week in March 2026, averaging 5.86 ships per day, a figure consistent with the current subdued traffic levels[1]. This historical baseline frames the 46% YES probability on Polymarket: traders are betting that traffic will rebound to at least the listed threshold before July 31, 2026, despite the persistent disruption.

The contract prices today on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine the payout based on the finalised IMF PortWatch arrivals[2]. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Iranian government regarding port reopenings, scheduled naval exercises that may restrict passage, and any shifts in Red Sea attack patterns that could reroute shipping[8][10]. A recent update from IMF PortWatch on 12 May 2026 highlights ongoing trade disruptions due to attacks on commercial ships, a key dependency for any traffic recovery[10]. Watch for weekly revisions in the PortWatch data, as these often signal emerging trends before monthly updates confirm them[2].

The settlement window closes at 23:59 UTC on 31 July 2026, and the market resolves to YES only if the finalised daily number of transit calls equals or exceeds the listed value on any date within the period[1]. Given the 95% drop in crossings, the 46% implied probability reflects a cautious but plausible view that traffic may stabilise or rebound slightly before the deadline[7]. On-chain mechanics ensure transparent execution, with USDC payouts distributed automatically once the conditional token outcome is determined by the final IMF PortWatch report[2]. No moralising is needed; the facts show a volatile chokepoint where geopolitical shifts directly dictate market outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.