Pronóstico: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open, with January 2026 transits up 11% compared to the previous year, keeping the crowd-implied probability of an effective closure at 0% YES on Polymarket today [1]. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon settle in USDC only if IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of arrivals at or below 10 ships; current data shows the average was 33 ships as of March 8, 2026, far above the settlement threshold [4].

Historically, the strait has faced severe disruptions, notably in 2023 when Houthi forces in Yemen attacked commercial vessels amid the Gaza conflict, causing temporary declines but never a full seven-day average drop to single digits [3]. Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, which saw official closures with traffic falling 36% below average in early March, Bab el-Mandeb has maintained resilience despite seasonal slowdowns and security risks from US-Iran tensions [9][1].

Key catalysts include renewed US-Iran diplomatic escalations and any sudden Houthi announcements targeting Red Sea shipping lanes, which could trigger immediate transit drops [1]. Traders should monitor weekly IMF PortWatch updates for the 7-day moving average, as a sustained dip below 10 would instantly resolve the market to YES before the 2026-06-30 deadline [7]. Seasonal factors already caused a sharp fall last month, but tonnage remains 16% higher than 2025, suggesting closure is unlikely absent a major geopolitical shock [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.