Pronóstico: Putin out as President of Russia by 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this June 2027 Putin exit contract at **8% YES**, with the remaining probability implying continuity in the Kremlin remains the base case. On Polymarket, traders buy and sell **USDC**-denominated shares on Polygon, and the market resolves through the platform’s conditional-token mechanics once the oracle confirms whether Putin has ceased to be president before 30 June 2027 at 18:30 UTC.

The historical frame is simple: Putin has held the presidency continuously in one form or another since 1999, and modern Russian politics has shown very limited tolerance for an orderly transfer of power at the top. That makes the contract closer to a low-probability political rupture than a normal election bet. Comparable Polymarket listings on the same theme have generally stayed in single digits or the low teens for nearer-dated expiries, with June 2027 pricing around the high single digits to high teens depending on the source and time of capture, which is consistent with a market that sees exit as possible but not the central scenario.[1][3][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are not routine polling but *hard* political signals: a resignation or removal announcement, an official Kremlin succession move, credible reports of detention or incapacitation, or a sudden constitutional change that makes Putin unable to continue. The market rules also mean an announcement before expiry would settle it **Yes** immediately, even if the handover takes effect later.[1][2] Recent reporting has also shown that large idiosyncratic bets can move attention on this contract, so order flow and headline risk matter as much as scheduled events.[7][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.