Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Yes** at **54%** today, so the contract is trading as a slight favourite for Strait of Hormuz ship traffic to clear the IMF Portwatch threshold before year-end. The market resolves on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, and the trigger is mechanical: a 7-day moving average of Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” must print at **60 or above** on any date up to 31 December 2026.

The comparable trade set matters because this market has already moved with the reopening narrative. Reuters reported in April that traffic was still at less than 10% of normal despite a ceasefire, while later coverage from CNBC and the New York Times noted that ships were only trickling back and that full recovery could take weeks because of backlog, security checks and mine-clearing constraints.[12][15][17] In that context, a mid-50s Polymarket price implies traders are still balancing a gradual normalisation against the risk that traffic stays structurally depressed for longer than expected.

For the next leg, watch any fresh diplomatic announcement involving the US and Iran, plus shipping guidance from operators and tanker brokers, because those are the inputs most likely to change the Portwatch line quickly. Any credible easing of transit restrictions, escort requirements or insurance costs could lift the 7-day average; by contrast, renewed warnings, naval incidents or delays in reopening measures would keep the count below the 60-call mark. CNBC’s recent reporting suggests prediction-market traders remain divided on timing, which fits a contract that can resolve early as soon as the published Portwatch average crosses the threshold.[1][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.