Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently struggling to reach the 60-call threshold for the Strait of Hormuz, with the latest 7-day moving average sitting at just 13.14 calls as of 21 June 2026[2][4]. This figure is far below the 60 required for the market to resolve to "Yes", and historical data shows the last time the average hit or exceeded 60 was over three years ago[6]. The current 54% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are betting on a sudden surge, yet comparable cases reveal that such jumps are rare without major geopolitical shifts or trade route reopenings. On Polymarket, this contract is priced in USDC on the Polygon network, using conditional tokens to lock in payouts if the threshold is met before the settlement window ends on 31 July 2026.

Traders should monitor announcements from the IMF PortWatch for any updates on tanker traffic flows, which remain at risk from regional trade disruptions[3]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of monthly port-level traffic data, which could signal whether container and dry bulk ships are returning to normal routes. Recent reports indicate that tanker flows are still affected by instability, making a rapid recovery unlikely without diplomatic progress[3]. Additionally, watch for OPEC or EIA statements on shipping lanes, as these often precede changes in transit volumes[5]. Without a clear announcement or data spike, the probability of hitting 60 calls by July remains low, despite the current market optimism.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.