Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended after a brief reopening in April that ended within a day. Current transit calls hover near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 ships daily, a stark drop driven by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. Tensions have escalated following US strikes on Iranian military sites and reciprocal Iranian attacks on vessels, with Tehran reportedly laying mines and imposing tolls that have halted a route carrying 20% of global oil and gas supplies.

Historically, similar closures in the region have persisted for months without rapid resolution, framing the current 8% crowd-implied probability as a realistic assessment of the odds. Previous attempts to reopen the strait have failed quickly, and the current 7-day moving average sits at just 13.14, far below the 60-ships threshold required for a "Yes" settlement. Traders on prediction markets have noted that traffic is unlikely to return to normal levels this year, reinforcing the view that the settlement window ending in July 2026 offers little hope for a sudden rebound.

Key catalysts to watch include President Trump’s explicit stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, a condition that remains unmet as peace negotiations stall. The US has declared a naval blockade against Iran, and any shift in this stance or a breakthrough in diplomacy could alter the trajectory, though recent data shows minimal progress. With the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve providing only a temporary buffer and daily economic costs exceeding $4 billion, the pressure remains high, yet the immediate outlook for normal traffic remains bleak [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.