Pronóstico: Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains firmly in the White House, with current market pricing on Polymarket showing a 0% implied probability that he will resign or be removed as President before 30 June 2026. On the Polygon network, this contract trades using USDC and conditional tokens, reflecting the crowd’s view that no permanent cessation of his presidency is imminent. The settlement window closes at the end of June 2026, and any announcement of resignation or removal before that date would immediately resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of when the change takes effect.

Historically, permanent presidential removal has only occurred via impeachment and Senate conviction, requiring a two-thirds majority in both chambers, as outlined in the Constitution [3]. The 25th Amendment offers mechanisms for temporary incapacity but has never been enforced against a president’s will and primarily facilitates short-term power transfers, such as during surgery [3]. No president has been permanently removed under Section 4 of that amendment, and Congress has yet to appoint an alternative body to oversee such a process [3]. This legal and historical backdrop frames why the market assigns near-zero probability to Trump’s removal by mid-2026.

Traders should monitor the 2026 midterm elections, as Trump himself has warned that Democrats may pursue impeachment if Republicans lose control of Congress [2]. Any shift in congressional composition could trigger impeachment proceedings in the House, followed by a Senate trial where 67 votes are needed for removal [3]. Additionally, watch for formal calls from Democrats to invoke the 25th Amendment over policy threats, such as those against Iran, though these would likely result in temporary, not permanent, removal [7]. The key catalysts are election outcomes, impeachment resolutions, and any official declarations of presidential incapacity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Trump out as President by June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.