Pronóstico: Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

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Market context

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have not met in person since their announced summit in Alaska on 15 August 2025, where only a proposal was discussed and no agreement was reached to end Russia’s war in Ukraine[1][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a new meeting by June 30, 2026, reflects this historical precedent: despite high-level announcements, the two leaders have failed to secure a follow-up encounter, with Russia now accusing the US of abandoning the “spirit of Anchorage”[6][7]. Comparable cases, such as the proposed but unconfirmed 2025 Budapest summit in Hungary, further illustrate how geopolitical friction often dissolves planned meetings before they materialise[9].

Traders should monitor official announcements from the US State Department and Kremlin regarding Ukraine peace talks, as any breakthrough could trigger a new summit. Recent confirmation from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that no agreement was reached during the Alaska Summit underscores the fragility of current diplomatic channels[5]. Key catalysts include scheduled meetings between Trump, Putin, and European leaders, as well as Russia’s stated reliance on the Alaska Summit’s alleged agreements for future negotiations[3][6]. Without a clear shift in these dependencies, the likelihood of a qualifying in-person meeting remains negligible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.