Pronóstico: Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The contract on Polymarket currently prices the chance of any listed person entering Iran before 30 June at 0% YES, reflecting the stark reality that high-profile political figures are not visiting a nation still embroiled in active conflict and diplomatic isolation. This zero probability is not an abstract guess but a direct on-chain consensus built from conditional tokens trading on the Polygon network, where liquidity in USDC has overwhelmingly favoured the "No" side given the current geopolitical climate.

Historically, comparable cases show that even during periods of tentative diplomacy, such as the 1970s thaw or the 2015 nuclear deal negotiations, no US President or senior cabinet member physically entered Iranian territory while hostilities persisted. The recent conclusion of a fourteen-point Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June, signed by Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian, has lifted maritime blockades and halted fighting in Lebanon, yet high-level talks remain confined to Switzerland with no indication of imminent travel for Western leaders [2][3]. The regime’s insistence that a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon is a central condition for any final deal further complicates any potential visit by US officials [1].

Traders should monitor the next 60-day roadmap for a final agreement, specifically watching for official announcements regarding high-level visits to Tehran or changes in visa protocols for foreign dignitaries. The upcoming technical discussions in Burgenstock, Switzerland, and the establishment of a deconfliction cell for Lebanon are critical dependencies that could shift sentiment, though recent reports confirm that significant progress has been made without any mention of planned visits [3]. Any sudden announcement from the US Central Command or Iran’s Supreme National Security Council regarding the lifting of remaining sanctions or the release of frozen assets would be the primary catalyst for a probability shift, yet current data suggests such a visit remains highly improbable before the settlement window closes [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.