Pronóstico: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a preliminary peace memorandum between the United States and Iran, electronically signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which aims to end an ongoing conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This accord includes a 60-day negotiation window to finalise a comprehensive deal, with Trump’s top condition being Iran’s reaffirmation that it will not procure nuclear weapons[1][2].

Historically, such interim agreements—like the 2015 JCPOA framework—often stall during finalisation due to unresolved nuclear or sanctions issues, making the current 3% crowd-implied probability of Trump signing a final written agreement by July 2026 a plausible reflection of past fragility[3]. While the memorandum is signed, the final binding agreement remains contingent on 60 days of further negotiation, with no guarantee of completion[4].

Traders should monitor the upcoming ceremonial signing by Vice President JD Vance in Geneva on Friday, the release of the agreement’s full text, and any progress on sanctions waivers or nuclear enrichment limits[2][5]. A recent BBC report confirms the deal is signed electronically but notes that final terms, including potential transit fees for the Hormuz Strait, remain under negotiation[1]. The settlement window ends 1 August 2026, leaving little time for a final agreement to materialise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.