Pronóstico: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The contract on Polymarket prices the US confirming extraterrestrial life at 10% today, a figure that reflects the absence of any definitive government statement despite years of speculation. This probability sits against a backdrop where the first major release of US UFO files in May 2026 explicitly failed to confirm alien existence. The Pentagon described the released videos as unresolved cases, stating the government could not make a definitive determination on the observed phenomena, while President Trump encouraged the public to draw their own conclusions without offering proof of artificial or alien origins.

Historically, credible claims have remained unverified by official bodies, with whistleblowers like David Grusch relying on witness accounts rather than personal observation of alien vehicles or bodies. No government entity has issued a formal announcement verifying extraterrestrial life, and experts from the SETI Institute affirm there is no compelling evidence thus far. The market’s low price mirrors this reality: despite congressional hearings mentioning recovered non-human biologics, the consensus of credible reporting and official records has consistently withheld confirmation, leaving the public to speculate on unverified narratives.

Traders should monitor the ongoing release of additional documents, as the Pentagon announced on May 18 that more files are actively being processed for publication, with a second set released on May 22. The next catalyst will likely be the next scheduled disclosure or a direct statement from the President, Cabinet, or Joint Chiefs regarding UAP encounters. With the settlement window ending in December 2026, the market remains sensitive to any shift from unresolved cases to definitive confirmation, though current data suggests the 10% probability is well-calibrated to the lack of official proof.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.