Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which means traders are pricing in no 7-day PortWatch average reaching **60 transits** by 31 July. For a YES to settle, IMF PortWatch would need to publish a moving average at or above that threshold on a day within the window, so the market is really about whether traffic can recover to near-normal on the official shipping data that feeds the on-chain conditional token payout in **USDC on Polygon**.

That 0% read sits against a recent history of severe disruption rather than a routine seasonal dip. Reuters reported just **three daily transits** on 22–24 July, while Lloyd’s List Intelligence said weekly transits fell to **39** for 20–26 July and described the route as back to crisis-era lows, with inbound Gulf traffic down more than 90% from pre-strike levels.[2][12] Earlier in July, Reuters and CNBC both showed the strait sliding towards a near standstill after renewed US-Iran fighting and vessel attacks, with traffic far below the pre-conflict norm of roughly 60 to 140 sailings a day depending on the vessel mix used.[7][11][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are not abstract diplomacy but the practical signals that change shipowners’ routing decisions: any de-escalation between Washington and Tehran, the pace of naval escorts, and whether insurers and charterers decide the risk premium has fallen enough to resume normal transits. Recent reporting has pointed the other way, with Lloyd’s List saying near-term recovery looked unlikely because neither side had materially shifted position, while Reuters noted that even when some LNG and Japan-linked vessels kept moving, broader traffic stayed sharply depressed.[10][12][15] Because settlement depends on PortWatch’s published 7-day average, the market can move quickly if daily crossings rise for several consecutive days and push the moving average over 60 before month-end.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.