Pronóstico: Putin out as President of Russia by 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin has held Russia’s top executive role for 25 years, moving seamlessly between president and prime minister since 1999, with no voluntary resignation recorded in that span[4][5]. The Polymarket crowd currently prices the contract “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026” at 10¢ per share, implying a 10% chance he ceases to be president before the settlement window closes[2]. This on-chain price, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects real-time trader reactions rather than abstract speculation, offering a continuously updated signal of market expectations[2].

Historically, Putin’s power transitions have been structural rather than personal: Boris Yeltsin’s sudden 1999 resignation handed power to Putin, while later constitutional amendments secured his position beyond formal terms[3][5]. Unlike leaders ousted by coups or elections, Putin has consolidated authority through institutional redesign, making a voluntary exit unlikely while he lives[6]. The 10% probability thus mirrors rare, high-impact scenarios—such as sudden health collapse, detention, or forced removal—rather than routine political turnover.

Traders should monitor three catalysts: official announcements of resignation or removal, Putin’s public health disclosures, and scheduled constitutional reviews that could alter his tenure. Recent reports note Putin’s rare hint of readiness to “hand over the country,” though this remains unconfirmed and non-binding[8]. The Foreign Policy Research Institute states there are no signs Putin will relinquish power voluntarily, reinforcing that any exit would likely be involuntary[6]. Watch for sudden shifts in Polymarket pricing as new data emerges, as odds adjust continuously with each trade[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.