Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Strait of Hormuz shipping has been virtually halted for weeks due to the ongoing Iran conflict, with traffic dropping to near-standstill levels and oil prices surging over 30%[1][3]. The current 7% crowd-implied probability on Polymarket reflects this grim reality, where the contract trades on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, pricing the chance of a 7-day moving average hitting 60 ships before July 31 at a mere fraction of certainty[6].

Historically, the strait once facilitated 100 commercial vessels daily before the war, yet recent data shows averages hovering around 27–32 ships, far below the 60-ship threshold required for a "Yes" resolution[2][7]. Even following the June 17 US-Iran deal, which mandated immediate reopening, traffic only surged to 25 vessels on a single Thursday—still insufficient to sustain the required weekly average[2][4]. The lingering threat of mines and GPS spoofing further complicates any rapid return to normalcy[3].

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade, a prerequisite in the memorandum of understanding for Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels[4]. Any delay in this lift, or continued Iranian tolls and mine-clearance operations, will likely keep averages depressed[5]. Recent news confirms that a commercial ship was hit just two days ago, causing a sharp traffic drop and reinforcing the fragility of the current reopening[9]. Without a swift resolution to these dependencies, the 60-ship target remains highly improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.