Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed, with commercial shipping suspended after a brief reopening on 21 April 2026 that ended the following day. This total stoppage means the 7-day moving average of transit calls required to trigger a “Yes” resolution—60 arrivals—is mathematically impossible to reach under current conditions, explaining the market’s 0% crowd-implied probability. Historical patterns show that even when the strait reopened temporarily, flows remained well below pre-war levels, with daily transit calls hovering around 27 and the 7-day average near 32, far short of the 60-bar threshold.

Traders should monitor the US–Iran memorandum of understanding, which guarantees immediate commercial navigation and requires the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July 2026, with Iran expected to restore traffic to pre-war levels within the same window. However, the agreement does not confirm Iran’s authority over the strait, and vessels are only toll-free for 60 days while a new arrangement is negotiated. Recent marine intelligence from AXSMarine reported 25 commercial vessels traversing the strait on a single Thursday—the highest volume since April—but this remains insufficient to sustain the required average. As CNN notes, the reopening is a critical component of the MOU, yet prolonged disruption continues to threaten global oil prices and cost the economy over $4 billion daily.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.