Pronóstico: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States has already launched a large-scale joint military offensive against Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury, on 28 February 2026, with the explicit objective of regime change and destroying Iran’s ballistic missile programme[1]. This action, which included the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and triggered a monthslong war between the US, Israel, and Iran, means the market’s condition for a “Yes” resolution—commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran—has technically been met in the real world[1]. However, the US and Iran announced a halt to hostilities on 14 June 2026, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, extending the ceasefire for 60 days to lay groundwork for a final settlement[1].

Historically, US–Iran conflicts have rarely resulted in direct territorial occupation, as seen in the 1953 coup that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected prime minister and the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, which limited uranium enrichment but did not involve land control[3]. The 2026 war, while devastating Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, similarly focused on strategic strikes rather than establishing de facto control over Iranian territory, aligning with past patterns where the US avoids long-term occupation[2]. This precedent frames the current 12% crowd-implied probability as a reflection of uncertainty over whether the ceasefire will collapse into renewed offensive operations aimed at territorial control, rather than a denial of the initial offensive’s occurrence[1].

Traders should monitor Trump’s diplomatic shifts, as recent reports indicate he has leaned toward direct talks and economic pressure to secure a deal, though Tehran has not significantly altered its stance since the April ceasefire announcement[4]. Key catalysts include the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire extension, any US or Israeli announcements regarding renewed strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar, and developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have escalated amid chaotic ceasefire attempts[4]. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible sources, making on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon (USDC) sensitive to real-time geopolitical updates as the settlement window closes on 31 December 2026[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.