Pronóstico: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, a theological claim that the prediction market on Polymarket prices today at a mere 2% chance of occurring before the end of 2026. On the platform, traders use USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, locking in a payout structure where a winning "Yes" bet yields over 5,700% while a "No" outcome returns the stake plus a modest profit. This contract has attracted nearly $64 million in volume, making it one of the platform’s most discussed markets, with theology effectively becoming a tradable asset despite the inherent unpredictability of the event[2][4].

Historically, similar bets on religious events have consistently resolved to "No", framing the current 2% probability as a reflection of long-term scepticism rather than a genuine forecast of imminent change. In 2025, when a comparable market asked if Jesus would return that year, bettors who wagered against the event earned an annual return of approximately 5.5%, as the prophecy failed to materialise[1][5]. This pattern mirrors how markets treat other low-probability theological claims, where the consensus of credible sources invariably finds no evidence of the event, reinforcing the "No" outcome as the statistically dominant result[3].

Traders should monitor any sudden announcements from major religious organisations or unexpected shifts in global discourse that might temporarily inflate the probability, though no credible catalyst currently exists to alter the 2% baseline. The settlement window ends on 31 December 2026, and the resolution source relies on a consensus of credible outlets, meaning any claim of the Second Coming would require overwhelming, verifiable evidence to shift the market[2]. Recent coverage highlights that while liquidity remains deep, allowing large bets with minimal slippage, the market remains anchored by the absence of any factual trigger for the event[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.