Pronóstico: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd-implied probability on Polymarket for the Iranian regime collapsing before 2027 sits at 7% for "Yes", reflecting a cautious market view that the Islamic Republic remains resilient despite current pressures [2]. This contract, traded on the Polygon network using USDC and conditional tokens, prices the event not as an abstract certainty but as a low-probability outcome where core structures like the Supreme Leader’s office and IRGC control persist [2].

Historical baselines suggest regime changes occur roughly once per century in any given country, implying a 1% annual probability, though periods of intense political stress can elevate this to 5–6% [1]. Current economic distress, with inflation exceeding 50% and food prices hitting 70%, likely adds two to three percentage points to this baseline, yet cohesive security forces, entrenched institutions, and a deep fear of chaos following collapses in Iraq or Libya pull the estimate back into the low single digits [1][5].

Traders should monitor announcements regarding elite divisions, the scale of ongoing protests, and shifts in international support, as these are critical catalysts for revolution [5]. Recent reporting from The Atlantic notes that Iran now meets nearly all five conditions for a successful revolution, including a financial crisis and divided elites, yet the absence of a unified alternative leadership remains a significant dampener [5]. The settlement window closing on 31 December 2026 means any de facto loss of power over the majority of the population must occur within this timeframe to resolve as "Yes" [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.