Pronóstico: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **96% YES**, so the market is effectively saying a USGS count of at least one **6.5+ earthquake** in the Aug 3–9 ET window is overwhelmingly likely. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the outcome determined by the resolved **conditional token** payoff rather than by the underlying tectonic event itself.

That price sits in line with the broader 2026 seismic backdrop, which has already included multiple major events and significant aftershock sequences. The USGS’s 2026 significant-earthquake list shows that events at or above this threshold have continued to occur this year, and the Mindanao sequence has already produced at least two magnitude 6.5 aftershocks, underlining how one large rupture can create follow-on qualification risk for this kind of binary count market.[1][12] Historical reading here is therefore less about predicting whether the Earth will stay quiet in general, and more about whether one qualifying quake lands inside the exact USGS window, including any late catalogue revisions that could shift the count after the first report.[6][7]

For traders, the key catalyst is the USGS feed itself: the market resolves from the agency’s earthquake search page, and Polymarket’s own rules allow extra time if a substantial quake has occurred but has not yet appeared, or if a final-day event needs magnitude revision.[6] That means the practical watchlist is the USGS search output, any post-event magnitude updates, and major regional aftershock clusters, especially in the Pacific and other high-activity belts where 6.5+ events are routinely revised after initial detection.[1][6] With the contract still open until the settlement window closes, late catalogue adjustments are the main mechanical risk, not exchange pricing alone.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.