Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly halted for weeks due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, sending oil prices and essential goods costs significantly higher[1]. President Trump has declared that reopening this strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress[1]. Despite the blockade, MarineTraffic data indicates vessel movement is gradually returning to normal levels, though uncertainty persists[4].

Historically, normal traffic in this corridor exceeds 100 ships daily, whereas recent figures have dropped sharply below this threshold[7]. The current 89% crowd-implied probability suggests traders believe a rebound to the 60-ship seven-day moving average is imminent, yet the latest IMF PortWatch data from 21 June 2026 shows a 7-day average of only 13.14[5]. This stark gap between current activity and the settlement threshold frames the high probability as a bet on rapid diplomatic de-escalation rather than current operational reality.

Traders must monitor Trump’s naval blockade announcements and any shifts in US-Israeli-Iranian peace talks, as these are the primary catalysts for reopening the route[1]. The settlement depends entirely on IMF PortWatch publishing a 7-day moving average above 60, meaning even minor diplomatic breakthroughs could trigger a resolution[8]. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket utilise USDC on the Polygon network with conditional tokens, allowing users to price this outcome directly without waiting for the underlying event to fully materialise in the abstract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.