Pronóstico: Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score

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Market context

On 27 June 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Croatia and Ghana will meet in Philadelphia for a pivotal FIFA World Cup Group L match, with the market currently pricing a specific exact score at 12% YES. This contract resolves solely on the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and shoot-outs, and trades on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens. The underlying event is a high-stakes group-stage fixture where Croatia, unbeaten against African sides in World Cup history and favoured by the Opta supercomputer with a 56.3% win probability, faces a Ghana defence that has not conceded a goal in the tournament so far[1][2].

Historical precedents suggest that exact-score markets in matches between a dominant favourite and a defensively resilient underdog often cluster around low-scoring outcomes like 1-0 or 2-0, yet the 12% probability implies the market is pricing a more specific, perhaps higher-scoring, result that contradicts typical defensive patterns. Croatia’s recent 4-2 loss to England and Ghana’s clean-sheet record create a volatile dynamic where a single defensive error could shift the scoreline dramatically, making the exact-score probability sensitive to late tactical adjustments rather than pure historical averages[1][3].

Traders must monitor the final line-ups announced before kick-off, as the absence of key attackers like Modrić or the inclusion of Ghana’s pacey forward Semenyo could alter the expected goal count significantly[5][7]. Additionally, weather conditions in Philadelphia and any pre-match injury updates from the official FIFA squad lists will be critical catalysts, as these factors directly influence the probability of the market’s specific outcome[2][6]. The settlement window closes at 21:00 GMT on 27 June, requiring immediate attention to real-time match data once the game begins.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.