Pronóstico: Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Senegal and Iraq face off in a pivotal FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 26 June 2026 at BMO Field in Toronto, with the game kicking off at 3:00 PM ET. The market “Senegal vs. Iraq – Exact Score” currently prices the YES outcome at 4%, reflecting the low probability that the final score will match one of the explicitly listed exact outcomes. On Polymarket, this contract trades using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement based on the official 90-minute result, excluding extra time and shoot-outs.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group games rarely hit above 5–7% unless the teams are defensively rigid or the listed outcomes include common low-scoring results like 1–0 or 2–1. Senegal, despite their World Cup pedigree (having qualified in 2002, 2018, 2022, and 2026), have struggled in this tournament with two defeats and six goals conceded, while Iraq remain untested at this level. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2018 show that exact-score probabilities often dip below 5% when one team is out of form and the other is inexperienced, as is the case here.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late injury news, particularly for Senegal’s key attackers, as their current form hinges on offensive efficiency. Iraq’s coach Graham Arnold has emphasised defensive discipline ahead of this fixture, which could suppress goal totals. A recent pre-match interview with Arnold on YouTube highlights Iraq’s tactical focus, suggesting a low-scoring affair that may push the market toward “Any Other Score” if the listed outcomes favour higher totals. With the settlement window closing at 19:00 UTC on 26 June, on-chain liquidity and conditional token pricing will be the primary drivers of price movement before the match.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.