Pronóstico: Uruguay vs. Spain - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, Uruguay and Spain will meet in Guadalajara for a decisive FIFA World Cup Group H match, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 9% YES. This contract sits on Polymarket’s Polygon chain, settled in USDC, where conditional tokens allow traders to bet on specific final scores while the underlying event remains a single 90-minute regulation result excluding extra time or shoot-outs.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup knockout or late-group fixtures rarely exceed 10% unless one team is heavily favoured to score multiple goals; Spain’s recent 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia and Uruguay’s 0-0 friendly against Algeria suggest tight, low-scoring contests, making any specific scoreline inherently improbable [1][6]. In the five prior encounters since 1950, Spain won three with nine total goals while Uruguay won none with just four, indicating a defensive edge that further dilutes the probability of any single exact outcome [7].

Traders should monitor the final line-up announcements released one hour before kickoff, as any shift in Spain’s midfield or Uruguay’s defensive shape could alter goal expectations [5]. Additionally, the over/under 2.5-goals market, currently priced at -110 for OVER, offers a real-time dependency: if the live odds drift toward UNDER, the likelihood of any exact score diminishes further [2]. No major injury updates have been confirmed as of 7 AM UTC, but the pre-match press conference at 6 PM ET may reveal tactical dependencies critical to score forecasting [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.