Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
23% | 77% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
23% | 77% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 23% |
| Iga Swiatek | 19% |
| Elena Rybakina | 11% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 7% |
| Coco Gauff | 5% |
| Naomi Osaka | 4% |
| Alexandra Eala | 4% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 3% |
| Jessica Pegula | 3% |
| Victoria Mboko | 3% |
| Elina Svitolina | 3% |
| Karolina Muchova | 2% |
| Qinwen Zheng | 1% |
| Madison Keys | 1% |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 1% |
| Emma Navarro | 1% |
| Clara Tauson | 1% |
| Belinda Bencic | 1% |
| Emma Raducanu | 1% |
| Linda Noskova | 1% |
| Jasmine Paolini | 1% |
| Diana Shnaider | 1% |
| Anastasia Potapova | 1% |
| Marketa Vondrousova | 0% |
| Paula Badosa | 0% |
| Maya Joint | 0% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0% |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0% |
| Daria Kasatkina | 0% |
| Tereza Valentova | 0% |
| Donna Vekic | 0% |
| Dayana Yastremska | 0% |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 0% |
| Xiyu Wang | 0% |
| Ashlyn Krueger | 0% |
| Marie Bouzkova | 0% |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia | 0% |
| Elise Mertens | 0% |
| Sofia Kenin | 0% |
| Katie Boulter | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Player A | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Player U | 0% |
| Player V | 0% |
| Player W | 0% |
| Player X | 0% |
| Player Y | 0% |
| Player Z | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 23% probability to pronóstico: 2026 women’s us open winner (tennis). The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →