Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse | 59% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 21% |
Market context
Market consensus: 74% chance of pronóstico: wimbledon atp: jenson brooksby vs ignacio buse. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jenson Brooksby and Ignacio Buse in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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