Pronóstico: Metro Bank One Day Cup: Gloucestershire vs Surrey

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** on Gloucestershire vs Surrey, so the contract is effectively saying the market sees almost no chance of an official Surrey win being reflected before settlement. On Polymarket, the trade is settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the outcome represented by conditional tokens and resolving to the final match result published by ESPNcricinfo; any official on-field ruling that produces a winner counts as an ordinary win.[12]

The historical frame is mixed but useful. Surrey already beat Gloucestershire by **19 runs** in a Metro Bank One Day Cup day-night match at Bristol this season, with Dom Sibley and Rory Burns setting the platform and Gloucestershire falling short in reply.[8] The previous year, Gloucestershire turned the tables at Guildford, winning by **85 runs** in another One-Day Cup meeting.[11][18] That kind of split record suggests the fixture has not been one-way, even if a 0% price implies the market is heavily discounting Surrey’s chance in the current setup.

The main catalysts are the official toss, the named XIs, and any weather or DLS risk, because a shortened game can materially change an odds profile on an on-chain market. Venue and start-time details have varied in previews, with one source placing the Bristol match at **2pm** and another listing a **3:30pm IST** start for the same fixture, so traders should rely on the final ECB/ESPNcricinfo match page once teams are confirmed.[1][15] Late team news matters because One-Day Cup line-ups often shift with county availability, and any abandonment, revised target, or win via DLS/over-rate penalty still resolves to the match winner under the contract terms.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Metro Bank One Day Cup: Gloucestershire vs Surrey across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.