Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Lilmix (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map Handicap: LILMIX (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Lilmix (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Lilmix (-9.5) vs NEW VISION (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Lilmix (-9.5) vs NEW VISION (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Lilmix (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-3.5) vs Lilmix (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-6.5) vs Lilmix (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-3.5) vs Lilmix (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Lilmix (-12.5) vs NEW VISION (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pronóstico: counter-strike: lilmix vs new vision (bo3) - cct europe challengers series playoffs. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket round 1 match between Lilmix and NEW VISION in the CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 30 at 7:00AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs NEW VISION (BO… on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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