Pronóstico: PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this **PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20** contract at **42% YES** as the 3M Open begins at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, with the official PGA Tour schedule running **23–26 July 2026**.[2][4] On Polymarket, buyers are taking the YES side with **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the contract settles against the PGA Tour’s final results, with ties included in the top-20 test.[2]

That pricing sits in the middle of what you would expect for a deep-field PGA Tour event where one strong round can move a player dozens of places. The 3M Open is a relatively young PGA Tour stop, first staged as an official event in 2019, and the outright market this week has been led by Scottie Scheffler while defending champion Kurt Kitayama is back in the field.[1][3] For a top-20 market, the key read-through is that elite names can shorten the odds materially, but a single bad round, withdrawal, or missed cut can still push a contract towards No.

A trader should watch tee-time changes, injury or withdrawal news, and any late field updates before the round starts, because those directly affect the probability of a top-20 result. The PGA Tour’s leaderboard and odds page is the primary live reference for the event window, while betting previews published close to tournament week show Scheffler as a clear favourite and note that odds are still moving.[2][3][4] The market’s resolution is mechanical: final official standings determine whether the selected player finished inside the top 20, and if results are not published by the deadline the contract resolves No.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.