Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 66% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 36.5 | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 Winner | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Game Spread +/-1.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 40.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 43% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 21% |
Market context
Market consensus: 68% chance of pronóstico: us open atp: zachary svajda vs daniel altmaier. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Zachary Svajda and Daniel Altmaier in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Al… on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →