Pronóstico: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg meet in the opening fixture of the 2026–27 2. Bundesliga season on 15 August. The Polymarket contract prices individual exact-score outcomes as conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC against the final whistle result. The 0% crowd probability reflects the fragmented liquidity typical of early-season German football markets, where no single scoreline commands sufficient volume to establish meaningful odds before squad rosters and pre-season form become clearer.

Both clubs occupy the middle tier of 2. Bundesliga competitiveness. Fürth finished 2024–25 in mid-table, whilst Nürnberg, a traditional heavyweight with recent Bundesliga experience, typically contests promotion playoffs. Head-to-head records show modest goal tallies in recent encounters—matches between these neighbours have averaged 2.3 goals across their last eight meetings, with 1–1 and 2–1 scorelines appearing most frequently. The 0% reading likely reflects traders awaiting concrete team news rather than genuine conviction that no specific outcome will occur; the market will reprice sharply once summer transfers conclude and starting lineups solidify.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through July and early August, particularly departures to higher divisions and injury status of key attacking players. Pre-season friendly results carry limited predictive weight but offer early indicators of tactical setup. The settlement window closes at 11:00 UTC on match day, allowing only hours for late-breaking team-sheet changes to influence positions. Conditional token mechanics mean traders holding positions in unlikely scorelines face significant slippage if attempting to exit near the deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.