Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 87% |
| FC København O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| FC København (-1.5) | 68% |
| O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Debreceni VSC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Debreceni VSC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC København O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| FC København (-2.5) | 39% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score | 32% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Debreceni VSC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Debreceni VSC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Debreceni VSC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Debreceni VSC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC København travels to Hungary to face Debreceni VSC in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying round match on 12 August 2026. The fixture is a two-legged tie, with this encounter forming the first leg. Polymarket's conditional token structure prices this "More Markets" contract at 100% implied probability, meaning traders are pricing near-certainty that additional betting markets will be offered for this specific fixture. On-chain settlement depends on whether secondary markets—such as correct score, both teams to score, or player performance props—materialise on the platform before the 16:00 UTC deadline on match day.
Historical precedent suggests that Europa Conference League qualifying matches typically attract supplementary market listings, particularly when involving established European clubs. København, a Danish Super Liga side with consistent European participation, has featured in multiple Polymarket secondary offerings during prior continental campaigns. Debreceni, Hungary's most decorated club, similarly generates sufficient trading interest to justify expanded market coverage. The 100% probability reflects the platform's track record: qualifying-round fixtures between clubs of this profile have reliably spawned additional markets within the settlement window.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's official announcements and the UEFA fixture calendar for any postponements or scheduling changes. The match's 12:00 PM ET kickoff is fixed, but regulatory or logistical delays occasionally compress the window between final whistle and market settlement. Additionally, the conditional token mechanics mean this contract resolves independently of the match outcome—only the existence of supplementary markets matters for settlement purposes.
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: FC København vs. Debreceni VSC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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