Pronóstico: Independiente Santa Fe vs. Once Caldas - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Independiente Santa Fe and Once Caldas are listed by Polymarket today at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively pricing no chance that the contract’s “more markets” condition resolves in the affirmative. The event itself is the Colombia Primera A meeting scheduled for 2 August at 9:00 PM ET, and settlement runs to 3 August 2026 01:00 UTC, so the token will only pay out if the on-chain conditional token resolves to the specified outcome within that window.

That near-zero price sits against a head-to-head record that is not one-sided enough to justify certainty. Across the sources, Santa Fe has had the better overall historical edge, with 17 wins to Once Caldas’ 10 and 8 draws in 35 meetings, while another database shows 24 Santa Fe wins, 15 Once Caldas wins and 16 draws across 55 matches since 2005.[1][12] Recent meetings have also been tight: ESPN records a 1-1 draw in January 2026, and Tips.GG notes Santa Fe had won the prior run of recent fixtures, including several 1-0 or 2-1 results.[19][6] For a Polymarket user paying USDC on Polygon, that history matters less than whether the specific market definition is still alive and correctly mapped to the match outcome.

The main catalysts are straightforward: line-up news, late injury or suspension updates, and any schedule or competition changes that alter what this “more markets” contract is actually tied to. Flashscore still listed the fixture live for 3 August 2026, suggesting the match was in view at the time of settlement, while SofaScore and ESPN also carried the pairing as an active match page.[14][11][18] If the underlying contest is delayed, abandoned, or otherwise reclassified by the league, the conditional token resolution becomes the key dependency rather than the scoreline itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Independiente Santa Fe vs. Once Caldas - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.