Pronóstico: The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Birmingham Phoenix v Sunrisers Leeds contract at **0% YES** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the market is effectively treating a Phoenix win as an extreme tail outcome. With the match already played at Edgbaston and Sunrisers Leeds having won by 45 runs, the only remaining question for settlement is whether the event is formally recorded under the market’s rules as a standard Sunrisers victory, which the listed result already satisfies. [2][8][10]

The recent comparable signal is straightforward: Sunrisers have just beaten Phoenix in both the men’s and women’s Hundred meetings at Edgbaston, including the men’s match by 45 runs and the women’s match by nine wickets. That matters for reading a zero-priced YES, because it is consistent with a clean, decisive result rather than a rain-shortened or abandoned contest, and the market’s DLS/DRS and walkover language means any official on-field award would still resolve as an ordinary win. [2][3][10][13]

For traders watching the final settlement mechanics, the main catalysts are the official scorecard, any ECB or competition confirmation of the result, and whether the fixture is recorded as complete with no exceptional ruling. The Hundred’s live match pages and broadcaster reports already show a finished game at Edgbaston, with ESPN and BBC both carrying the result, so the practical dependency is now administrative rather than sporting; if the market data feed has not updated yet, it should snap to the published outcome once the oracle ingests the official result. [2][8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.