Pronóstico: The Hundred: MI London vs Trent Rockets

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the MI London v Trent Rockets cricket contract at **0% YES** on USDC, so the on-chain market on Polygon is currently treating a positive settlement as effectively off the board. For a buyer or seller, that means the conditional token for YES is trading as if the match outcome is already discounted to nothing, even though the market only resolves on the official result under The Hundred’s playing conditions.

Recent comparable meetings suggest the gap between these sides can narrow quickly, which is why a zero price is more a statement about current position than a guarantee about the cricket. Trent Rockets have recent evidence of winning tight Hundred games, including a chase against London Spirit and a women’s-side victory over MI London by nine wickets, while MI London have also produced strong Oval results and beat Trent Rockets twice in the 2025 men’s competition, once in a chase and once in the final. That mix matters on Polymarket because the contract pays only if the named side wins outright, or via any on-field tiebreak or competition ruling that awards a winner.

The main catalysts are line-ups, toss, and weather, because those determine whether this becomes a normal chase game, a rain-shortened affair, or a possible no-result style scenario under the competition rules. ESPN and BBC listings place the men’s match at the Kia Oval on 8 August, and Sky Sports has noted Hundred coverage runs through the finals on 16 August, so late team news and any interruption to the schedule can still move the implied probability sharply. With settlement keyed to the official outcome window, traders will also watch for any DLS or administrative decision that turns a reduced match into a valid win, since those count as ordinary wins here.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: The Hundred: MI London vs Trent Rockets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.