Pronóstico: Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Seattle Orcas

Platform comparison

Market context

Mi New York defeated Seattle Orcas by five runs in their 17th-match encounter at Knight Riders Cricket Field in Pomona on 2 July 2026, a result that already stands as the finalized outcome for this prediction market [2][8][10]. The contract on Polymarket now trades at 100% YES, reflecting the on-chain certainty that the match has concluded and the winner is confirmed via ESPNcricinfo’s official publication [1][9].

Historically, prediction markets resolving on completed cricket fixtures with a clear win margin—such as this five-run margin—have settled instantly once the official scorecard is published, with no ambiguity over DLS, tiebreaks, or forfeits [3][5]. Comparable MLC 2026 matches where one side won by under ten runs have all resolved within minutes of the final ball, reinforcing that a 100% price here is not speculative but mechanical, anchored in the immutable record of the match result on Polygon.

Traders should monitor only the official ESPNcricinfo match page for any post-result administrative corrections, though no such revisions are expected given the match’s completion over a week ago [1]. The settlement window ending 17 July 2026 is a procedural deadline, not a catalyst; the USDC payout is already locked in conditional tokens, awaiting automated execution once the platform confirms the result’s finality [6]. No further announcements, schedule changes, or dependencies remain relevant—the event is closed, and the on-chain outcome is definitive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Seattle Orcas across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.