Pronóstico: Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Natus Vincere face HULIGANI in the Lower Bracket quarterfinal 2 of The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a Best of 3 series scheduled to start at 11:00 GMT on 27 June. The on-chain contract currently prices Natus Vincere at 55% YES on Polymarket, reflecting a cautious edge despite Strafe users overwhelmingly backing the Ukrainian side with 89.9% of their votes [1]. This divergence between crowd sentiment and market price is a familiar pattern in qualifier play; in past TI regional qualifiers, lower-bracket teams often see their conditional token prices lag behind expert predictions until the first map is won, as the market waits for on-chain confirmation of form rather than relying on historical reputation [7].

Traders must monitor the live stream and official match announcements for any signs of forfeiture or disqualification, which would immediately resolve the contract to the winning team [2]. The primary catalyst is the start time itself; if the match does not commence by 11:00 GMT, the settlement window extends, and the probability of a 50-50 resolution rises if delays exceed seven days [4]. Recent coverage from Hawk Live confirms the match is live-streamed and scheduled for 11:00 GMT, so any deviation from this schedule will be the first signal of volatility [3]. With USDC and Polygon underpinning the trade, the conditional tokens will adjust rapidly once the first map outcome is verified on-chain, making the opening minutes the critical window for position entry.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.