Pronóstico: Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pricing **Yellow Submarine at 100%** today, so the on-chain market on Polygon is effectively treating this as a certainty despite the event still sitting inside the settlement window. The matchup is the Games of the Future Group A BO3 between Yellow Submarine and Execration, scheduled for 31 July, and the market resolves through conditional tokens in **USDC**: a win for Yellow Submarine pays out Yellow Submarine, an Execration win pays out Execration, and a non-run, tie, or excessive delay pushes it to 50-50.

That level is consistent with how prediction markets often behave once a result is already reflected in live match data or post-match listings. Several esports listings now show the series as started or finished, including Sofascore and Flashscore, while esport.vision records Yellow Submarine as defeating Execration **2-0** in the Games of the Future 2026 Group Stage BO3[2][5][12]. Liquipedia’s event page also places the fixture in Group A on 31 July[19], which is the kind of fixed schedule traders use to anchor the contract rather than relying on vague tournament coverage.

The key catalysts for any last-minute repricing are straightforward: an official bracket update, a match page changing status, or a delayed/abandoned series that falls outside the seven-day settlement clause. Strafe’s schedule page lists the same Group A fixture for 05:00, and sportsbook-style listings still show the match as scheduled or live, which means traders should watch for discrepancies between broadcast, scoreboards, and tournament admin posts[15][17]. If the series is confirmed complete, the remaining risk is mostly operational: whether Polymarket’s outcome data and the tournament record align before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.