Pronóstico: Spain vs. Belgium - Second Half Result

Platform comparison

Market context

Spain have already defeated Belgium in their 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final, with Mikel Merino scoring a late goal to secure a 2-1 victory at Los Angeles Stadium [1][2]. The match concluded earlier today, meaning the second-half result is a settled historical fact rather than a future uncertainty. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 100% YES for the outcome that aligns with the actual second-half scoreline, reflecting the on-chain mechanics where conditional tokens on Polygon settle immediately once the event resolves with USDC [2][9].

Historically, second-half results in World Cup quarter-finals often mirror the final outcome when a late goal decides the match, as seen in Spain’s 1990 victory over Belgium where the Spaniards also won the second half [5]. In this specific fixture, Merino’s goal in the closing minutes of the second half ensured Spain outscored Belgium in that period, making the “Spain” outcome the only factual resolution [2][6]. Traders viewing the 100% price are not speculating on probability but confirming a known result locked into the blockchain.

The sole catalyst for settlement is the official confirmation from FIFA that the match has ended, which has already occurred given the 3:00 PM ET kick-off time and the 19:00 UTC settlement window expiry [1][4]. No further announcements, schedules, or dependencies remain, as the game was not postponed and the result is final [1]. With the event complete, the market’s resolution is deterministic, and USDC payouts will execute automatically once the oracle confirms the second-half goal tally [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Spain vs. Belgium - Second Half Result across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.