Pronóstico: Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

England faces Norway in the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final on 11 July, with the match kicking off at 5:00 PM ET. Polymarket prices the specific exact-score outcome at 7% YES, reflecting the tight on-chain liquidity for USDC on Polygon where conditional tokens trade against the 90-minute result. This single-digit probability aligns with historical World Cup quarter-final volatility, where exact scores rarely repeat and defensive solidity often dictates low-scoring finishes; Norway’s deepest-ever run contrasts with England’s high goals-per-game average of 2.67, creating a statistical divergence that typically suppresses precise-score betting volume until late in the settlement window [2][8].

Traders should monitor England’s squad announcements ahead of the quarter-final, particularly regarding Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham’s fitness after their 3-2 win over Mexico, as any rotation could shift goal-scoring dynamics [4][9]. Norway’s possession sits at 48.8% with zero clean sheets this tournament, suggesting open play that increases exact-score variance [8]. The key dependency is the official line-up release on 10 July, which will determine whether England’s attacking depth or Norway’s counter-attacking Viking Row momentum dominates the first half. Recent form shows Norway won 2-1 against COD and 2-0 against PAN in the Round of 32 and Group Stage respectively, indicating they can score but also concede frequently [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.