Pronóstico: Norway vs. France - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup match between Norway and France kicks off at 3:00 PM ET on June 26, 2026, with both sides currently unbeaten and tied on six points in Group I. On Polymarket, the contract for an exact score outcome is priced at 9% YES, reflecting the on-chain liquidity settled in USDC via Polygon’s conditional tokens. This price sits well below the combined final score over/under market, which is set at 3.5 goals, suggesting traders view a specific scoreline as a low-probability event compared to the aggregate goal expectation[1][2].

Historically, matches between these nations have been tightly contested, with their last eight meetings split evenly between wins, draws, and losses, while France’s recent form shows nine victories from their last thirteen matches, nine of which came by a two-goal margin[3]. In their two recorded games since 2010, France averaged 2.5 goals per game versus Norway’s 1.0, yet the group stage dynamics often temper such disparities, as seen in previous World Cup group matches where unbeaten teams frequently produce narrow results rather than high-scoring exact outcomes[6].

Traders should monitor France’s line-up confirmation and any late injury updates for Kylian Mbappé or Ousmane Dembélé, as their availability directly influences scoring volatility[5]. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC, and any postponement will keep the market open until completion, so real-time updates from FIFA’s match centre are critical for adjusting positions before the final whistle[4]. Recent group standings confirm both teams lead Group I with identical win records, meaning tactical caution may prevail over aggressive scoring, further suppressing the likelihood of any single exact score[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.