Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - Total Corners

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Market context

On the pitch in Los Angeles, the FIFA World Cup 2026 group-stage clash between Türkiye and the United States has already concluded with a 2–1 victory for Türkiye, as Orkun Kökçü sealed the win in the 31st minute[1]. This real-world outcome directly underpins the current Polymarket contract, which now sits at a 100% conditional probability for the “YES” outcome on total corners, reflecting the certainty that the settlement criteria have been met by the match’s final statistics[2].

Historically, World Cup group games involving high-stakes defensive setups often produce corner counts that align tightly with pre-match projections, yet this fixture’s 100% pricing suggests the on-chain conditional tokens have already locked in the settlement based on the final match data[3]. Comparable cases from recent tournaments show that once a match ends with a definitive scoreline and full-time corner count, Polymarket’s USDC-based liquidity on the Polygon network rapidly converges to 100% for the correct outcome, eliminating arbitrage[4].

Traders should monitor the official FIFA match report for the final corner tally, which will serve as the definitive settlement trigger for the conditional tokens[5]. While the match has ended, any late adjustments to the official statistics—such as reclassifications of blocked shots or corner appeals—could technically delay settlement, though such events are rare in FIFA’s audit process[6]. The most recent live updates confirm the USMNT finished group play undefeated before this match, but the final result now dictates the market’s resolution[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.