Pronóstico: LDU de Quito vs. Mirassol FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES today, so the market is effectively saying the relevant “More Markets” condition is not expected to resolve in the affirmative before the settlement window closes on 20 August 2026 at 22:00 UTC. On-chain, that means the USDC used to buy the position sits in the Polygon-based conditional token structure until the oracle outcome is known and the market can settle.

For context, the underlying tie has been tightly balanced: the first leg in Brazil ended 1-1, leaving LDU de Quito with home advantage in the second leg at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado. Comparable Libertadores knockout spots often stay in a narrow range when the aggregate score is level, because extra-time and penalties become live outcomes; for a “More Markets” contract, that makes the exact settlement rule more important than the headline scoreline.

A trader would watch official team sheets, late injury updates, and any change to kick-off timing or venue confirmation, because those are the sorts of details that can move conditional market outcomes even when the match itself is already scheduled. The fixture was listed for 20 August at 18:00 ET / 22:00 UTC, with recent match-centre listings showing the game underway and the aggregate still 1-1 before full-time.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.