Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 3% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 3% |
| Game 2 Winner | 1% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: lol: furia esports vs los (bo3) - cblol regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between FURIA Esports and LOS in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Es…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL … on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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