Pronóstico: Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the exact-score contract at **5% YES**, which implies a narrow chance that Club Puebla versus CD Guadalajara lands on one specific listed score rather than the far broader “Any Other Score” outcome. Because settlement is on final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, the token pair on Polygon backs the conditional outcome directly in USDC terms, so traders are effectively weighing a single scoreline against every other possible result.

Recent head-to-head data points to a fairly open fixture rather than a heavily one-sided goal pattern. Across several comparison datasets, Guadalajara has the better historical record, but Puebla has still taken points often enough to keep draw outcomes relevant; one source lists 11 Guadalajara wins, 9 Puebla wins and 9 draws in 29 meetings, while another shows 16 Guadalajara wins, 12 Puebla wins and 16 draws across 44 matches[7][13]. Recent meetings also include a 0-2 Puebla loss to Guadalajara in September 2025, and a 1-3 Puebla defeat in January 2026 in the women’s league is not directly relevant to this market, so the cleaner comparison is that these teams have produced a mixed H2H profile rather than a single dominant score template[17][4].

The main trader catalysts are line-ups, late injury news and whether either side rotates before kick-off, because exact-score markets are highly sensitive to changes in attacking availability and game state. SofaScore and other live-stat pages show the match fixture and line-up coverage, so any verified team-sheet update close to the start would matter more than general form talk[1][9]. The settlement clock ends on 2026-08-01T01:00:00Z, but if the match is postponed the market stays open until completion, so the practical risk is not only the scoreline itself but also any scheduling change that delays resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.