Pronóstico: MLB All-Star Game

Platform comparison

Market context

The American League faces the National League tonight in Philadelphia for the 2026 MLB All-Star Game, with the crowd-implied probability on Polymarket currently pricing an American League victory at 46% YES. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects a market leaning slightly against the home side despite the National League holding a -135 moneyline favourite status in traditional sportsbooks [2][5]. While Kalshi’s parallel market assigns the National League a 59% implied probability, the Polymarket price suggests a tighter contest where the American League’s +110 odds offer a distinct value discrepancy compared to the 41% implied probability seen elsewhere [3].

Historically, All-Star Game outcomes rarely align perfectly with pre-game moneylines, as the event prioritises entertainment over competitive intensity, often leading to volatile finishes that defy statistical modelling. The National League’s recent dominance in these midsummer classics has driven their favourability, yet the American League has frequently overturned expectations when the run line is set at +1.5, as seen in recent betting trends where the underdog covers nearly half the time [5]. The current 46% probability sits in a grey zone where historical variance suggests the game could easily swing 50-50 if the match ends in a tie or cancellation, a scenario that resolves the contract evenly rather than favouring the favourite [3].

Traders should monitor the final roster announcements and any late-injury updates before the 8:00PM ET start, as player availability directly impacts the run total and winner probability. Phase 2 voting for the All-Star Ballot remains open until noon ET on Thursday, potentially influencing fan sentiment and final lineup selections even after the game begins [1]. With the settlement window closing on 22 July 2026, the market remains open for postponed games, meaning any delay in Philadelphia keeps the USDC positions active until the match concludes on-chain [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.