Pronóstico: Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs face the New York Mets at Citi Field on 25 June at 7:10pm ET, with the Cubs holding a 43–37 record against the Mets’ 34–46 standing[1]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 66% YES for the Cubs, implying a clear edge despite traditional moneylines showing the Mets as slight favourites at –120[2]. This divergence mirrors past MLB markets where on-chain sentiment outpaced bookmaker pricing, particularly when a team’s recent form clashed with seasonal records, as seen in the 2024 Cubs–Dodgers series where conditional tokens on Polygon shifted 12% before game time[3].

Traders should monitor the Mets’ injury updates and pitching rotations, as a late change could swing the conditional USDC payouts. Recent reports note the Mets aiming to break their slide, but their bullpen remains vulnerable[5]. The total is set at 8.5 runs, and any weather delay in Queens could extend the settlement window beyond 23:10 UTC on 2 July, keeping the contract open until completion[1]. Watch for official announcements from MLB on starting pitchers, as these directly impact the on-chain resolution mechanics.

The Cubs’ balanced roster, with a mix of power and speed, contrasts the Mets’ inconsistent offence, making the 66% probability a plausible reflection of underlying strength[2]. In comparable cases, teams with superior records but lower moneyline odds often saw Polymarket prices correct to 60–70% within hours of game start, driven by retail traders on the Polygon network[4]. This market’s resolution hinges on the official final statistics, ensuring that USDC payouts align with the governing body’s recognised outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.