Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Detroit-San Francisco contract trading at about **56% YES** for the Tigers, which is close to the broader market view rather than a strong lean. For a USDC position on Polygon settled through conditional tokens, that means the market is pricing Detroit as a moderate favourite, not a near-certainty, and the spread between the crowd price and the listed sportsbook numbers is small enough that late line moves could still matter. [10][7]

That pricing fits the recent comparative case set: sportsbooks have generally made Detroit a short away favourite, with moneylines around Tigers -127 to -132 and Giants +118 to +125, while model-based previews have landed near 52% to 56% for Detroit. [1][7][10][17] In other words, the current Polymarket price is broadly consistent with the conventional betting market, and it should be read as a modest edge rather than a signal that one side is heavily mispriced. [1][10]

The main catalysts for traders are the official line-up and pitcher confirmations, any late injury or rest news, and whether the game starts on time or is pushed back. Because the market stays open if the game is postponed and only resolves 50-50 if it is cancelled outright or ends in a tie, schedule risk is mostly a timing issue unless weather or a doubleheader scenario alters the fixture itself. [market description][19] MLB game pages and sportsbook boards typically sharpen in the hours before first pitch, so the most relevant watchpoints are the final listed starters, batting order, and any shift in the moneyline from the current Tigers-favoured range. [1][9][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.